NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Will Brazil finish first in World Cup Group C?
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26c-bra page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.013 · f★ 4.0% · deploy 2.0% · net 0.53pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0128@ model P(YES) = 0.693
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 4.00% · g(f★) = 0.038%deploy 2.00% · g = 0.028%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.680 · EV +$9stake $500 · 2.00% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$500
2.00% of bankroll
Sharesunits
735
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$735
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$235
net of cost
Max losslose
-$500
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×1.47
$1 → $1.47
Risk:RewardR:R
0.47 : 1
win $0.47 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$9
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 69.3% | +$235 | +$163 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 30.7% | -$500 | -$154 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$9 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +1.3 pprelative edge +1.9%
Required win ratebreak-even
68.0%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
69.3%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+1.3 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.693
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
68.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.471
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-213
risk $213 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.47 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$47.06
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 33% · APY 38%ROI 1.9% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+1.9%
APR (simple)scaled
+33%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+38%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.09%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge +0.53 pperosion 59% · break-even w/ fees 68.8%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$1,000
4.00% · g = 0.038%
Half Kelly½ f★
$500
2.00% · g = 0.028%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$250
1.00% · g = 0.017%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 0.017%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 0.028%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = 0.035%
Recommended¼ f★
$250
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.904 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.890 bit
Δ -0.014 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.56 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.64 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0004 nat (0.0005 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.693 · CI [0.57, 0.80] · κ 58.1
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.693
Beta(40.3, 17.9)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.57, 0.80]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
58.1
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+1.3 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] +5.5% · P(YES) 71.8% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
+5.51%
P(YES) empiricalq
71.8%
Best pathmax
+47.1%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 0.03% · ruin rate 0.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 2.00%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.022
μ 0.03% · σ 1.4%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
0.015
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-2.0%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-2.0%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-2.9%
Calmar 0.01
Ruin rate≤50%
0.0%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap +24.9pp · crowd gap +23.6pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
+24.9 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
+23.6 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 18.7% · AUC 0.760out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 18.9% ± 2.2% · Brier 0.2032 · log-loss 0.6042 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.2032
lower = better · ō 0.51
BSSvs base
18.7%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0050
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0514
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.6042
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.760
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
PROFITABLE · PF 1.42 · expectancy +0.176R180 trades · win 58.3% · Sharpe 0.159
Total P/Lnet
+$7,937
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
58.3%
105 W / 75 L
Profit factorPF
1.42
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
+$44.09
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
+0.176R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$254.16 / -$250.00
ratio 1.02 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
0.159
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+3.30 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.